Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-28 22.412926 24.400680 26.554606 29.074288 31.956710 35.170069 39.049904
2025-10-05 19.316035 22.033919 25.191760 29.180849 34.157557 40.262255 48.481351
2025-10-12 17.195965 20.320730 24.152265 29.301466 36.213267 45.444551 59.225567
2025-10-19 15.771621 19.179528 23.548214 29.738065 38.605113 51.424947 72.623744
2025-10-26 14.484334 18.012730 22.697886 29.628248 40.115475 56.372521 85.940856
2025-11-02 13.378204 16.941259 21.810706 29.278325 41.125585 60.673717 99.572898
2025-11-09 12.545372 16.145705 21.195596 29.201433 42.482503 65.775431 116.624554
2025-11-16 11.787238 15.377684 20.525860 28.924885 43.419100 70.296648 134.436600
2025-11-23 11.119796 14.679594 19.883341 28.592578 44.171418 74.609459 153.908916
2025-11-30 10.542561 14.066283 19.308034 28.288779 44.901757 79.033605 176.210339
2025-12-07 10.058818 13.555301 18.842959 28.107562 45.815354 84.075173 203.691356
2025-12-14 9.584352 13.025566 18.303312 27.731096 46.275769 88.204812 231.469801
2025-12-21 9.446994 13.008323 18.591477 28.874986 50.064443 101.751938 308.838471
2025-12-28 9.065163 12.585379 18.180907 28.690930 51.013804 108.334407 366.318445
2026-01-04 8.747792 12.245165 17.882462 28.684532 52.361183 116.586673 446.863935
2026-01-11 8.519959 12.033930 17.785374 29.053486 54.647309 128.674617 579.749248
2026-01-18 8.228939 11.702976 17.456315 28.924108 55.715360 137.373296 716.325295
2026-01-25 7.926165 11.336823 17.040838 28.576353 56.181232 144.273172 865.726371
2026-02-01 7.685568 11.061556 16.768777 28.497915 57.335317 154.378708 1108.274157
2026-02-08 7.434155 10.755941 16.422772 28.229185 57.940756 162.740856 1394.351197
2026-02-15 7.191975 10.454948 16.067473 27.907638 58.352987 170.639419 1762.045194
2026-02-22 6.968858 10.176733 15.738379 27.614005 58.802361 179.101834 2281.917791
2026-03-01 6.774825 9.940100 15.473308 27.438887 59.575092 189.724115 3137.093321